Coming up with technology wish lists is easy: jetpacks, brain-to-computer interfaces and fusion power are perennial favorites. Getting those things in service is not.
On closer inspection, though, some long-hyped tech breakthroughs have decent odds of finding their way to retail shelves this year -- if not always at a reasonable price.
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1. Glasses-Free 3D TVs: This is my safest bet, as Toshiba just launched a 55-inch HDTV in Europe that doesn't require wearing glasses to see 3-D effects. But this "4K' display -- as in, four times HD resolution -- also needs a generous bank balance to cover an estimated price of €7,999, about $10,365.
One unknown about this set is how it will tolerate varying viewing angles. The prototype I saw at last year's Consumer Electronics Show didn't work unless you stood on locations marked with electrical tape. Another is demand for 3D in any form: Customers don't seem interested in spending much extra on this technology.
2. Portable Fuel Cells: It's no Mr. Fusion, but a portable fuel cell that uses hydrogen to create electricity could be a next best thing. We're a ways off from having the technology that powered the space shuttle's systems move into laptops or phones (would their use of liquid fuel flunk TSA standards?), but Apple has filed two patents related to fuel cell technology for charging devices and the Stockholm-based myFC says it will ship a puck-sized fuel cell called the PowerTrekk later this year for €199, roughly $256.
Then again, solar chargers can cost a lot less, even if they're not suitable for spelunking.
3. Color E-Ink: The 16 shades of gray on "e-ink" displays may suffice for novels but won't cut it for travel guides, textbooks and other popular book genres. Meanwhile, the color LCDs of tablets like the iPad or Amazon's Kindle Fire go through batteries too quickly.
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E-Ink, the company behind the grayscale screens on Amazon's older Kindle models and other e-readers, has been working on a color version, called E-Ink Triton, that has landed in an e-reader from Ectaco (who?) so far. Another comes from Qualcomm; its Mirasol screen technology looked impressive when I saw it demoed in Washington in April 2010, but since then, it's only appeared in one, reportedly terrible tablet.
4. Battery-Tolerant LTE Wireless. Speaking of batteries: One big reason why LTE (Long Term Evolution) phones need recharging so often is their need for two separate chips: one for the LTE radio and another for the 3G radio in the phone. That combination draws more power and wastes space inside the phone that could be used for a larger battery.
This year, single-chip LTE-plus-3G systems should finally be available. Not that you still won't wish your phone lasted longer on a charge.
5. Big OLED Screens. Organic light-emitting diode displays allow ludicrously flat TVs -- I saw a prototype Sony in 2007 that measured only an eighth of an inch thick. Now, OLED may finally be moving into bigger screens; LG and Samsung plan to ship OLED sets in the 55-inch range this year... for a reported $8,000.
But how much do you want to pay for the thinnest TV available? Plain old 55-inch LCDs go for under $1,000 now. Maybe we should wait until somebody can ship a flexible OLED first.
These are all fasincating possibilities, and I hope to see some on display at CES next week. (Disclosure: As some links here indicate, I also write about technology for the Consumer Electronics Association, the group that runs that show.) But I can't rule out a 2013 version of this post that still must tout these breakthroughs as "coming this year."
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Image: LG
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