NASA's Ares Flies; Commercial Falcon Follows

Following NASA's successful test flight of its new Ares rocket, a commercial company will attempt to demonstrate it too has the right stuff to launch astronauts into orbit.

Just down the road from where NASA's Ares 1-X demo rocket blasted off is a new launch complex built by California-based Space Exploration Technologies, which is preparing for the debut flight of its Falcon 9 rocket.

The company this month test-fired the cluster of nine engines needed to power the Falcon's flight and plans to ship the rocket to Cape Canaveral in November. Launch is targeted for early next year.

SpaceX recently upped the stakes by announcing it would include a prototype capsule, known as Dragon, on Falcon 9's first flight.

NASA is helping to fund development of the rocket and a cargo version of Dragon, and is considering proposals from SpaceX and others to develop passenger-carrying capsules as well.

The agency intends to award grants in November worth up to $50 million to study commercial space taxis.

The Ares 1-X demonstration, though successful, will not ensure the development of Ares 1 vehicle, which NASA hopes to fly in 2014. The agency already has spent about $3 billion on the program, including $445 million for the 1-X pathfinder mission.

A presidential panel tapped to assess the U.S. human space program and come up with alternatives says it is unlikely Ares 1 will be available until 2017 or later, leaving the U.S. dependent on Russia to transport crews to the International Space Station, which is currently slated to end in 2016.

Among the panel's recommendations is that NASA spend its money helping the commercial firms develop the equipment and expertise to transport people into orbit.

The panel also advised that NASA focus its attention on building heavy-lift rockets needed to fly to the moon and other destinations in the solar system.

Ares 1, like Falcon 9, is designed for Earth orbits only.

"We have a design that will do the country service, if it is put into service," said Jeff Hanley, who oversees NASA's new exploration initiative known as Constellation.

"(Ares 1-X) completely met our success criteria. In fact, we blew them away," added mission manager Bob Ess. "So far, we're on a path to learn a lot."

NASA says that even if the Obama administration and Congress decide to end Ares 1, the demo flight validated computer models and other technologies used to design the rocket -- information that is applicable for all rocket development.

The agency anticipates spending $49 billion developing Ares 1 and Orion through 2020, according to an August 2009 report on the program by the U.S. Government Accountability Office. In addition to flying crews to the station, Orion is designed to carry astronauts to the moon.

SpaceX, which holds NASA contracts worth $1.9 billion for Falcon 9 and Dragon development and 12 cargo delivery flights, is lobbying for an additional $300 million to develop an emergency escape system to prepare Dragon capsules to carry people.

"The funding is milestone-based, so if we don't achieve milestones, there's no money spent," SpaceX founder Elon Musk said in an interview. "It's not like a standard government cost-plus effort where the worse they do, the more money they get. This is the case where if we don't do what we say we're going to do, we don't get paid. So it's a no-lose proposition for the taxpayer."

"I think the fear on the part of some people out there is not that we will fail, but that we will succeed," he said.

"We want NASA to be our biggest customer," added Lawrence Williams, SpaceX vice president for strategic relations. "But that doesn't mean that's all we're going to do."