Another comet coming
After ISON, scientists will look forward to Comet Siding Spring, Meyer said. That comet will make a very close approach to Mars in October 2014, skirting just 76,428 miles (123,000 km) from the planet, according to the current best estimates.
"That promises to be pretty exciting," Meyer said. "Right now, in all honesty, what we know about it and what sort of calculations can be done ... the error bars are extremely large."
The comet poses risks to orbiters circling Mars, Meyer said, a prospect that may lead to re-orienting and maneuvering of the craft to protect them from comet particle strikes. But whether it's a 10 percent, 1 percent or 0.1 percent risk remains unknown at the moment, he said.
"You can't get too worked up about it until you get some measurements as the comet gets closer," Meyer said. "It promises to be quite a show — if we're able to look at it." (Photos: Amazing Comets of 2013)
In early August, JPL issued a request for proposals to help characterize the cometary environment of Comet Siding Spring, with proposals due on Sept. 11.
"The intent is to provide data products useful for risk assessment and mitigation-strategy development for the Mars orbiter missions, due to possible impacts from dust and ion tail particles as this comet encounters Mars," the JPL request stated.
Model simulations are needed to characterize the evolving dust and ion particle distributions around Comet Siding Spring, as well as their motions with respect to Mars, as this comet approaches the Red Planet.
Because Comet Siding Spring will come so close to Mars, it's likely that the planet, along with its associated spacecraft, will pass through the coma of the comet, Zurek said. But NASA's rovers will probably be relatively well protected, he said.
"As thin as the Mars atmosphere is, it should still shield the rovers from infalling particles," Zurek said, "so the risks to be assessed are to the orbiters."
Zurek told SPACE.com that scientists won't have an idea of how big a risk the comet environment will pose until they make more observations of the comet's variability as it nears the sun.
"We have put out a call for modeling of the cometary environment," Zurek said. Such modeling, he said, is dependent on the developing comet activity.
Passage through the comet's coma could result in a wide range of effects: anything from a modest enhancement to the background meteoritic flux experienced by the spacecraft, which is deemed most likely, to something more substantial, Zurek said.
"So stay tuned!" he said.
Siding Spring's Mars visitation will also overlap with that of another Mars newcomer, NASA's Maven spacecraft. To be launched this November, it will arrive at the Red Planet in late September 2014, with Comet Siding Spring set to make its closest approach to Mars on Oct. 19.
However, that will likely be too soon for the Maven orbiter to analyze the comet.
"Maven will still be in the middle of its commissioning phase at that time and will not be ready to take regular measurements," said Bruce Jakosky, principal investigator for Maven at LASP.
"Although we'd like to be able to observe the comet as it passes by and how it affects the upper atmosphere, our first priority will be spacecraft and instrument health and safety," Jakosky told SPACE.com.
The Maven team is working with the Mars Program Office (MPO) to predict the likely dust environment as the comet passes by, and how impacts from the dust might affect the spacecraft, Jakosky said. The MPO is coordinating the activities, he said, as that group is concerned about Mars Odyssey and MRO, in addition to Maven.
Minimizing the risk
"After Maven's launch, we'll be looking in detail at what mitigations we can take to minimize any risk," Jakosky said. "We'll look at things such as turning the least-vulnerable face into the flow of the dust, putting the solar panels edge-on to the flow and so on."
Jakosky said that, at this point, the best analysis indicates a minimal risk to Maven.
The number of dust impacts expected, and the effect they'll have on the spacecraft should be within the range of what Maven researchers anticipated for a normal mission run, Jakosky said. That is, the dust impacts should not exceed what researchers had already planned to absorb just from interplanetary dust over the lifetime of the mission, he said.
"I do expect that telescopic observations of the comet in the spring and more-detailed modeling of the dust environment in the coma and tail will help us to refine our analysis," Jakosky said.
Leonard David has been reporting on the space industry for more than five decades. He is former director of research for the National Commission on Space and is co-author of Buzz Aldrin's new book "Mission to Mars – My Vision for Space Exploration," published by National Geographic.
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