photo: A rioter walks through a burning barricade Liverpool, north west England during riots earlier this month. credit: Corbis
As England continues to clean up its cities and sort through court cases brought on by this month's riots, one may wonder what ripens conditions for social unrest in other areas of the world.
Though it's not clear whether this is the case in England, food prices often set the stage for riots around the globe, according to one group of scientists that submitted an analysis to a Cornell University e-publication this week.
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Researchers from the New England Complex Systems Institute in Cambridge looked at trends in food prices and recent protests and riots in North Africa and the Middle East. They found a noticeable link between the two, suggesting political disagreement isn't all that's necessary to spark conflict. Instead, the lack of security and access to people's basic needs -- including food -- are better predictors.
Despite events in the Middle East earlier this year supporting the group's theory, the authors' points predate them. In fact, the same group of researchers issued a government report in December 2010, disclosing what they knew about the relationships among food prices, political unrest and political instability. Within four days, Mohammed Bouazizi began a revolution in Tunisia by lighting himself on fire.
In addition to making conditions conducive to revolt, the group says people living during food shortages are often more desperate, and thus, can be more dangerous when they finally stand up to authority.
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But as pointed out in one Technology Review blog post, food prices aren't always enough to cause riots, but rather set the stage for them, so to speak. The idea is food shortages and high prices create the right climate for a number of issues to spark riots and social upheaval.
At present, the world's average price levels are below the researchers' suggested "tipping point" of 210 UN Food and Agriculture Organization points, but they're gradually increasing and will surpass this level by around April 2013 if allowed to progress at the same rate (and adjust for inflation), the authors of the paper write. During the most recent upheavals abroad, the points were temporarily above 210.
So what's primarily responsible for rising food prices to begin with?
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According to the paper, subsidizing ethanol to create fuel from corn (primarily the United States' doing) and investors speculating prices contribute to the problem. The underlying fact that more countries have come to rely on the global food market rather than local ones creates price-related strains as well.
But it should also be said the world doesn't function in a vacuum, and it's difficult to measure what else may be at play in countries that experience food shortages and famine, some with outwardly oppressive forces that restrict how food is maintained and handled within a country's borders. Also, stagnant economies and lack of employment opportunities probably fit into the equation, the researchers say.
Tags: Peoples and Government, Politics, Safety and Prevention
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