For all of the hell that Indonesia's been though in the past five years, its people sure could use some good news. Unfortunately, the latest round of reports are a mixed bag, and a fairly ominous one at that.
First, the bad news: despite three giant earthquakes since late 2004 and a magnitude 7.6 earthquake this past September that claimed 1,000 lives in and around the city of Padang, the region isn't out of the woods yet. Last fall's quake did nothing to alleviate stress along the Sunda megathrust fault, and a 200 mile-long stretch of the fault directly offshore from the city is still locked up two centuries worth of tectonic stress. Scientists expect an earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or greater any year now. A tsunami is all but certain to follow.
There is a bright spot: a high-tech tsunami warning system that's been partly operational is set to go fully live next month. Using a combination of seismographs, satellites tracking changes in the seafloor, and an array of ocean sensors to track any incoming waves, the German-Indonesian tsunami early-warning system (GITEWS) has already proven successful. It worked as planned after two large quakes shook the region in September 2007, issuing a tsunami warning within five minutes after the shaking stopped.
Problem is, that may be too long. Padang and its 850,000 people live so close to the Sunda fault that a tsunami could be on them 10-15 minutes after a quake. Five minutes' worth of warning simply isn't enough.
Researchers write in the latest issue of Nature Geoscience: "Forecasts have indicated that the next Mentawai earthquake will produce strong shaking along the Sumatran coast and will probably be tsunamigenic. There is potential for loss of life on the scale of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami." (emphasis added)
Right now, the most important thing the citizens of Padang have going for them is their memory. Having been hit by a big quake last year should help them when the time comes (researchers estimate 10-20 years tops, though it could come at any time); they'll hopefully know how to react before any warning is issued.
By all accounts, this the section of locked fault will be the last round in the incredible seismic salvo that people in Indonesia and throughout the Indian Ocean have been enduring for years now. It's bound to be a bad one.
For more, check out this video from Discovery News: Tsunami Warming Center in Uses Top
Technology
to guard the U.S. Pacific coastline.
Image: Getty
Tags: Earthquakes, Geology, Geophysics, Natural Disasters
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