For the moment, the first named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is still a hypothetical -- it's just a wave of of wet, stormy weather off the coast of Honduras.
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have circled system 93L in red, though, above, and are expecting to dub it "Alex" any time now. The storm has been steadily strengthening and organizing of late, and researchers are giving the system an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is heading toward the storm now to determine how far along it is.
All eyes will be on 93L/Alex over the next few days as it trundles northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Will is strengthen further before landfall? Will it cross the peninsula, turn north and head into the open waters of Gulf of Mexico?
And of course, the million dollar question: will it make an appearance over the site of the Deepwater Horizon disaster and oil spill?
Time will tell. There has been much speculation as to whether a tropical storm is a nightmare scenario for coastlines threatened by the spill or just what the doctor ordered to help disperse the muck. The vaunted scientists at NOAA -- so proficient at modeling ocean currents and tracking dangerous storms -- seem to have no idea what to expect (PDF), really.
If it does strengthen as expected, and if it does bear down on the spill, it will certainly send cleanup ships scurrying for port. The delay in siphoning oil and drilling relief wells to kill the blown out well could easily be a week or more, not accounting for any damage to equipment on site.
And of course there's always the possibility that the storm could trigger another spill.
It's a bit soon to christen the about-to-be-born Alex a menace to the Gulf, let alone the spill area. For now folks living in eastern Mexico and Belize are the ones who should be nervous. But next week could be a very different story.
Image: NOAA
Tags: Hurricanes, Meteorology, Natural Disasters, Weather
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