Researchers Predict Oil Spill's Long Term Travel Plans

The BP oil spill is rapidly advancing across the Gulf of Mexico, coating beaches in Louisiana and Texas and devastating natural habitats and wildlife populations in it's wake. How long before the toxic slick reaches the Atlantic Ocean and comes charging up the East Coast?

It may be only a matter of months, according to a new study. 

Researchers Axel Timmermann and Fabian Schloesser from the University of Hawaii at Manoa developed an ocean model that predicts how the oil spill’s surface flows could disperse over the year. 

“In our simulation, the spreading is controlled by ocean currents,” Schloesser explained. The model looks at the big picture of ocean current behavior, accounting for seasonal variations and the influence of winds on the currents.  

According to the University of Hawaii press release, the model does not include the influence of any natural oil sinks such as oil coagulation, the formation of tar balls, or chemical and microbial degradation. 

The computer’s scenarios predict that as oil gets caught up in the Gulf Loop Current, the southeastern states, including Florida, Georgia, North and South Carolina, could see repercussions of the oil spill by October 2010. 

Schloesser noted that the research team was surprised by “how fast and how much of the oil would spread into the Atlantic."

By next April, a year after the spill began, it could reach all the way up to Virginia, and then arc eastward, extending an oily, albeit heavily-diluted arm towards Europe. A shocking 20% of the particles in the simulation -- the unit used by the scientists to mimic the oil -- made it into the Atlantic.

But the model shows that if the flow was prevented from passing the Straits of Florida, the impact on the East Coast and Atlantic could be lessened dramatically. 

“If a decision was made to prevent or mitigate the spreading of the spill into the Atlantic, the narrow and deep section of the Florida Strait near West Palm Beach and Grand Bahama may be a good location to put efforts and resources,” Timmermann said.

“Controlling a section of about 30 miles is different from cleaning up hundreds of miles of coastlines in eastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas,” Timmermann added. 

Image: University of Hawaii at Manoa