The oil-spattered Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Coast are facing one of the most active hurricane seasons on record, federal officials warned Thursday.
The official outlook for the 2010 hurricane season that begins June 1 calls for 14 to 23 "named storms" (with top winds at least 39 miles per hour), including 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds at least 74 mph) and 3 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3-4, winds at least 111 mph).
The complication of oil from the April 20 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico was not seen as a major factor in emergency management plans, although officials noted that some spilled oil might wash ashore as part of storm surge that accompanies landfalling hurricanes.
"If there is a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and if it makes landfall someplace on the Gulf Coast, it is possible that some of the oil that's on the surface might be transported to the land area as far up as the surge goes," said Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
"The oil spill is a very significant disaster, it is one that is highly unfortunate," said Lubchenco, "but I think it is important to recognize that the area where there is oil is very small relative to the size of a typical hurricane."
Craig Fugate, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said the oil spill "doesn't significantly change the risk" to populated regions of the Gulf coast, because storm surge from a land-falling hurricane already is contaminated by petroleum products and other chemical leaking from storm-damaged infrastructure.
Lead hurricane season forecaster Gerry Bell of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center identified three factors contributing to a 2010 outlook above the average of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
The official outlook for the 2010 hurricane season that begins June 1 calls for 14 to 23 "named storms" (with top winds at least 39 miles per hour), including 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds at least 74 mph) and 3 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3-4, winds at least 111 mph).
"If there is a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and if it makes landfall someplace on the Gulf Coast, it is possible that some of the oil that's on the surface might be transported to the land area as far up as the surge goes," said Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
"The oil spill is a very significant disaster, it is one that is highly unfortunate," said Lubchenco, "but I think it is important to recognize that the area where there is oil is very small relative to the size of a typical hurricane."
Craig Fugate, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said the oil spill "doesn't significantly change the risk" to populated regions of the Gulf coast, because storm surge from a land-falling hurricane already is contaminated by petroleum products and other chemical leaking from storm-damaged infrastructure.
Lead hurricane season forecaster Gerry Bell of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center identified three factors contributing to a 2010 outlook above the average of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
- Because warm El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific have dissipated, upper-level wind conditions will be more conducive to the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.
- High sea surface temperatures -- which fuel tropical storms -- remain exceptionally warm across the Atlantic -- up to 4 degrees above average.
- The season is part of a multi-decade trend of active hurricane seasons that has seen favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions. Eight of the top 10 most active seasons have occurred since 1995.
Bell said the major uncertainty for the season remained conditions in the tropical Pacific, where ocean temperature could shift to a cool La Nina phase that encourages hurricane development.
"Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Nina develops this summer," he said. "At present we are in a neutral sate, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Nina to develop."
Image: Hurricane Noel (2007) approaches southeastern US coast. Courtesy of NOAA
Tags: Geophysics, Hurricanes, Meteorology, Natural Disasters, Oceanography
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