Don't look now, but federal forecasters are warning a nation that is still digging out from the devastation of terrible Spring weather that another unusually active Atlantic hurricane season is just ahead.
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While the United States avoided a direct hit of a major hurricane during 2010's very active season, Administrator Jane Lubchenco of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned Thursday: Don't count on it in 2011.
"The U.S. was lucky last year," she told a news conference. "Despite an above-normal season, we did not have significant damage from these storms on U.S. land. The winds that steer where storms go kept them away from our coastline. But we can't count on that again this year."
Lead forecaster Gerry Bell and colleagues at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicted 12-18 "named storms" with winds of 39 miles per hour, including 6-10 hurricanes with winds upwards of 74 mph, and 3-6 major hurricanes of Category 3-5 with increase of 111 mph or higher.
Lubchenco noted that many of the climate conditions that led to a record 19 named storms last year are present again as the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. Still lingering in the Pacific Ocean are cool La Niña effects that bring upper atmosphere wind conditions that are conducive to Atlantic hurricane formation. And above-average sea surface temperatures still are observed across the tropical Atlantic.
This first official seasonal outlook is similar to earlier unofficial predictions.
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But Lubchenco noted that the state of the science regarding hurricane prediction does not allow scientists to foresee the single most critical factor residents of hurricane-prone coastal regions need to know.
"It is next to impossible to draw any direct connection between the number of storms in a season and how many will make landfall," she said. "We know that our outlook was spot-on last year…we know that we're getting pretty good at making the outlooks. Translating that into landfall is beyond our capability at this point."
Besides, she observed, "it takes only one hurricane to wreak devastation."
IMAGE 1: Map showing the comparative susceptibility of U.S. coastal areas to land-falling hurricanes from 1900 to 2009. Credit: National Hurricane Center.
IMAGE 2: A satellite image of hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia (left to right) on September 16, 2010. Credit: NOAA.
Tags: Hurricanes, Meteorology, Natural Disasters, Spring, Summer
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