With deliberations at the Copenhagen climate change summit now reaching the end of their first week, tension, a colleague of mine in the meetings tells me, "is high." The tiny Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, the fourth smallest and third least populous nation in the world, has taken every inch of its 10 square miles and dug its heels into the sand of its ever-diminishing coastline in a determined bid to steer the discussions toward the strongest possible agreement. As a result, plenary sessions on both Wednesday and Thursday were adjourned partway through the day and not resumed.
The impasse is a perhaps inevitable result of the competing priorities among various blocs of nations attending Copenhagen: industrialized countries who would like to see an entirely new protocol that replaces the existing Kyoto agreement, not least because Kyoto places essentially all the responsibility for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions on their shoulders; the so-called BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and other major developing countries, who want tougher targets for industrialized nations but no limits on their own emissions and no new legally binding protocol; and thirdly the least developed countries and small island states, the ones who are at most immediate risk from the consequences of climate change and least equipped to adapt.
These fissures erupted into the open when Tuvalu tabled a proposal for a legally-binding Copenhagen Protocol that would, among other things, require parties to cap global atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 350 parts per million and global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C. (Pre-industrial levels of CO2 were 285 ppm; present levels are close to 390 ppm).
China - supported by other larger developing nations including India and Saudi Arabia - objected. The Chinese negotiator stated that such a legally binding treaty would unreasonably constrain their economy, and argued that a new treaty would result in the demise of existing Kyoto Protocol agreements and ultimately a weaker overall package. Tuvalu motioned to suspend the talks, and plenary adjourned. Then Tuvalu proposed a "contact group" to discuss the proposal, China refused to consider the notion and said that the only matter for discussion was establishment of limits on industrialized countries' emissions, and plenary was once more adjourned in favor of closed-door discussions in an attempt to move forward.
Explaining Tuvalu's stance, its negotiator Ian Fry pointed out that it was at particular risk from sea level rise. “Tuvalu is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change," he said, "and our future rests on the outcome of this meeting."
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